Overseas zinc inventory increased slightly, LME zinc support weakened, recording a bearish candlestick [SMM Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,084.00/mt. At the beginning of the session, its price center rose to $3,088/mt, then pulled back. During the European trading hours, it once fell to $3,046.35/mt. After entering the night session, LME zinc recovered some losses and finally closed at $3,069/mt, down $16.5/mt or 0.53% from the previous trading day. Trading volume increased to 14.1 lots, while open interest decreased by 750 lots to 220,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2512 contract opened at 22,565 yuan/mt, hitting a low of 22,565 yuan/mt at the opening. It then fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 22,685 yuan/mt, before dropping back slightly towards the end of the session, finally closing at 22,655 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt or 0.09%. Trading volume decreased to 33,178 lots, and open interest fell by 190 lots to 107,000 lots.

Macro: ADP estimated the US private sector lost an average of 11,250 jobs per week; The US House of Representatives will vote on a temporary funding bill at 5:00 AM Beijing Time on Thursday; Russian Foreign Minister: If the US proposes restarting summit meetings, Russia is willing to participate in preparations; India cut its December orders for Russian crude oil and increased purchases of US crude instead; Cracks appeared within the UK's ruling party; SoftBank's fund cleared its Nvidia position and invested an additional $22.5 billion in OpenAI; The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) held a symposium with private enterprises to solicit opinions and suggestions on the development of the service industry during the "16th Five-Year Plan" period; The People's Bank of China released its China Monetary Policy Execution Report for the third quarter of 2025.

Spot:

Shanghai: The purchase willingness for refined zinc in the Shanghai area was 2.17, while the sales willingness was 2.20. Futures continued to rise compared to the previous day. Yesterday, there were few traders making purchases or sales in the market. Spot offers remained high, with some traders holding prices firm and further raising their premium quotes. However, downstream consumption was generally sluggish during the off-season, with few inquiries for zinc ingots yesterday, resulting in sluggish spot trading.

Guangdong: The purchase willingness for refined zinc in the Guangdong area was 2.02, while the sales willingness was 2.21. Overall, there were few traders offering material in the Guangdong market yesterday, with limited market quotes. Premiums and discounts quoted by some traders increased compared to the previous day. However, downstream buyers continued to make just-in-time procurement, and market trading was relatively average. In the second session, the number of traders offering material continued to decrease.

Tianjin: The purchase willingness for refined zinc in the Tianjin area was 1.76, while the sales willingness was 2.21. Zinc prices continued to rise yesterday. Downstream buyers were cautious due to high prices, mainly restocking for essential needs with few inquiries. Traders offered few quotes due to attending external meetings, and prices held relatively steady with minor fluctuations. Overall market trading was sluggish.

Ningbo: Only a few traders provided quotes in the market today. Spot zinc ingot remained scarce. Prices continued to be held firm today, and spot premiums continued to rise. However, with futures moving higher, downstream enterprises were hesitant due to high prices, resulting in poor purchase willingness today. Spot trading appeared relatively average.

Inventory: On November 11, LME zinc inventory increased by 400 mt to 35,300 mt, up 1.15%. According to SMM communication, as of November 10, the total zinc ingot inventory in seven SMM regions was 159,600 mt, down 2,100 mt from November 3 and up 900 mt from November 6, indicating a slight increase in domestic inventory.

Zinc Price Forecast: Overnight, the LME zinc contract recorded a bearish candlestick, with support from the 20/60 daily average moving averages below. Overseas zinc inventory saw a slight increase, easing tight supply, and the LME zinc price center pulled back slightly. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, with support from the 20/60 daily average moving averages below. Currently, domestic spot zinc consumption remains weak, while the recent sustained opening of the zinc ingot export window has driven an increase in exports, and smelter production is expected to be lower than market expectations. These two factors together provide some support for SHFE zinc, which is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.

Data Source Statement: Data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.